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In October, when one of the few remaining members of the “anti-establishment” GOP, Mitt Romney, took on Democrats at the Republican National Convention, we wrote that the presumptive nominee had “a solid grasp of the political reality that has characterized American politics since the very beginning of our republic.”
But Romney’s message had been watered down, not fully grasped, by more mainstream Republicans, especially with respect to immigration. In a new poll conducted by the Center for Immigration Studies, Romney is down to 27 percent among those identifying themselves as GOP voters, well behind former Florida Governor Jeb Bush’s 30 percent support.
The CIS report, “How to Win Back the Hispanic Vote: A Strategy Guide,” is based almost entirely on “research and data … collected by CIS from a national sample of Republican voters.” The data comes from interviews conducted on a weekly basis from August 22 to November 19, by a representative sample of 1,013 respondents (including 1,018 Hispanics).
It was based on more than one response by interviewees, a measure of reliability that CIS considers the gold standard in the field. The survey also allows that respondents “may have had difficulty recalling how they voted in past elections.” So, the number of responses to question is accurate.
But CIS’ report is more than “research and data.” It’s a strategy guide, aimed at Republicans. And Romney’s failure to grasp that is a very big problem right now for the GOP’s nomination.
It’s one thing for “base voters” to be misled; it’s quite another for them to vote Republican against a credible, charismatic challenger who could be the eventual nominee. The same strategy was employed by a Republican candidate at a similar juncture in 2008, when Michael Dukakis was running against George Bush, and Democrats had the White House and Senate. (Dukakis came within 2 percent of Bush’s margin of victory that November.)
That strategy worked. In the end, Dukakis beat Bush. And there were many reasons for his success on Election Day. He was the best-known politician in the country at a point with few national political events, and had an established following in every important region of the country.
With Romney now effectively on his way out, Bush’s failure to beat Barack Obama in the early states has taken on renewed urgency—and his own
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